人因对核电厂事故应急疏散行为的影响

栾飞; 陈春花; 阮方; 程远; 朱婧娴; 汪建业

doi:10.11889/j.1000-3436.2022-0128

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人因对核电厂事故应急疏散行为的影响

辐射防护 | 更新时间：2023-08-29

- 人因对核电厂事故应急疏散行为的影响
- Influence of human factors on emergency evacuation efficiency of nuclear power plant accident
- 辐射研究与辐射工艺学报 2023年41卷第4期页码：40602
- 作者机构：
  
  1.中国科学院合肥物质科学研究院合肥 230031
  2.中国科学技术大学合肥 230026
- 作者简介：
  
  栾飞，男，1997年2月出生，2020年毕业于安徽大学并获得工学学士学位，现为能源动力硕士研究生，从事核应急疏散技术支持研究
  陈春花，副研究员，E-mail: chunhua.chen@inest.cas.cn
- 基金信息：
  
  核电安全监控技术与装备国家重点实验室开放课题项目(K-A2021.414)
- DOI：10.11889/j.1000-3436.2022-0128
  中图分类号：
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栾飞, 陈春花, 阮方, 等. 人因对核电厂事故应急疏散行为的影响[J]. 辐射研究与辐射工艺学报, 2023,41(4):040602.

LUAN Fei, CHEN Chunhua, RUAN Fang, et al. Influence of human factors on emergency evacuation efficiency of nuclear power plant accident[J]. Journal of Radiation Research and Radiation Processing, 2023,41(4):040602.
栾飞, 陈春花, 阮方, 等. 人因对核电厂事故应急疏散行为的影响[J]. 辐射研究与辐射工艺学报, 2023,41(4):040602. DOI： 10.11889/j.1000-3436.2022-0128.

LUAN Fei, CHEN Chunhua, RUAN Fang, et al. Influence of human factors on emergency evacuation efficiency of nuclear power plant accident[J]. Journal of Radiation Research and Radiation Processing, 2023,41(4):040602. DOI： 10.11889/j.1000-3436.2022-0128.

摘要

通过问卷调查分析，获得核电站周围不同人群对核应急疏散的认知情况和行为特征，并且通过Logistic回归模型对人群疏散时可能发生的行为作出预测。采用卡方检验法和Logistic回归模型对该地区的不同人群的疏散心理和疏散行为等因素进行相关分析和影响判断，并且通过最优分配算法对模型预测正确性进行判断。结果表明：是否购买过核安全相关保险、参加过的核应急疏散演习次数、对核应急疏散的了解情况、家中有无核应急防护措施等因素对人群疏散意识和心理有显著影响；性别、对核应急疏散的了解情况、参加过的核应急疏散演习次数、家中是否有核应急防护措施和是否购买过核安全保险等因素对人群疏散行为有显著影响；仿真表明，具有一定核疏散经验的人群能做出相对正确的疏散行为，减少疏散时间。

Abstract

Through questionnaire analysis, the cognitive situation and behavioral characteristics of different people around the nuclear power plant for nuclear emergency evacuation were obtained, and the possible behaviors of people during evacuation were predicted by Logistic model. Chi-square test and Logistic regression model were used to make correlation analysis and influence judgment on the evacuation psychology and evacuation behavior of different people in the area, and the optimal allocation algorithm was used to judge the prediction correctness of the model. The results showed that the factors such as whether to purchase nuclear safety-related insurance, the number of nuclear emergency evacuation drills, the understanding of nuclear emergency evacuation, and the presence of non-nuclear emergency protective measures at home had significant effects on the evacuation consciousness and psychology of the population. Gender, knowledge of nuclear emergency evacuation, the number of nuclear emergency evacuation drills participated, whether there are nuclear emergency protection measures at home and whether nuclear safety insurance has been purchased, and other factors have significant influence on crowd evacuation behavior. The simulation shows that people with certain nuclear evacuation experience can make relatively correct evacuation behavior and reduce evacuation time.

关键词

人因核应急疏散Logistic回归模型最优分配

Keywords

The human factorNuclear emergency evacuationLogistic regression modelOptimal allocation

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